Nvidia is preparing to announce earnings for its first quarter of fiscal 2026, with much speculation surrounding the impact of recent US chip export controls on the company’s international revenues. However, there is a growing sense among market watchers that attention should be directed elsewhere.
Kevin Cook, a senior strategist with extensive experience observing Nvidia, believes the introduction of the Nvidia GB200 NVL72 shipments, an advanced AI-focused server, is the real story for investors. This powerful hardware, which first shipped in February, is comprised of 72 GPUs all housed within a single cabinet and comes with a price tag around three million dollars.
Analyst expectations for these systems shifted dramatically earlier this year when delivery estimates were reduced following confusion sparked by news from DeepSeek in January. Cook highlights that with shipments just beginning, no one outside Nvidia knows what the true sales numbers will be.
Focus Shifts to AI Hardware Demand
Cook suggests that CEO Jensen Huang has the power to move markets with his guidance, particularly if quarterly deliveries approach 10,000 units, a milestone that would represent $30 billion in new hardware sold. Still, Cook suspects Nvidia might ultimately deliver fewer than 5,000 of these new systems.
These results will show whether enterprise customers are willing to rapidly upgrade AI tools in the same way consumers snap up the latest electronics. The appetite for such frequent investments remains an open question and could set the tone for Nvidia’s longer term growth.
Short term changes in the share price are to be expected as the market reacts to commentary on export restrictions, Cook predicts, but he downplays any lasting damage to Nvidia’s valuation. He points out that Nvidia’s shares have shown resilience, quickly rebounding after dips like the one that followed initial reports of tighter export rules.
Nvidia has demonstrated an ability to withstand shocks that might seriously disrupt other technology companies, according to Cook. He notes, almost with disbelief, that concerns over potential trouble with China appear not to have derailed confidence in the company.
Even with uncertainty around exports to China, Cook is confident Nvidia’s reach among major data center operators and hyperscale cloud companies will keep demand strong. He also highlights recent gains, including the company’s involvement in significant new projects in the Middle East, as further evidence of its global appeal.
For Cook, the essential question is whether shipments of the new GB200 NVL72 continue at a healthy pace. If Nvidia’s management signals ongoing strength in deliveries, he believes investors will overlook minor revenue swings this quarter and remain optimistic about the rest of the year. For more context on increasing AI server demand, recent reports show shipment momentum is building.
